Numbers,
I’ve found in years of watching local business trends, seldom tell the whole
story.
And
when it comes to the loss of jobs and the toll and heartaches on the unemployed
and their families, officials in both Workforce Boulder County and the
University of Colorado Business Research division agree that statistics alone
can be deceiving.
With
the holiday season here, the annual economic forecasts are just around the
corner with more pontifications – and numbers -- than pre-season college
football.
This
summer, I wrote about the expression that’s more contagious among forecasters
than H1N1 – the “jobless” recovery. It worried me then, and it worries me now.
A
recovery without jobs offers little holiday cheer, for example, to my neighbor
who just lost her job after 10 years at Sun Microsystems, or to the thousands
like her in Colorado who are close to exhausting unemployment benefits.
Boulder
County’s latest unemployment figure from September seemed hopeful at 5.5
percent, under the state’s 7 percent and several notches below the U.S. rate of
9.8 percent.
Adding
to fresh optimism that business might be picking up here, the number of local
job openings increased to about 1,148 in the July to September period, said Tom
Miller, director of Boulder County Workforce Center offices. That’s up from 766
in the same period in 2008.
But
Miller acknowledges the lower unemployment figure can be misleading. “I thought
it was too low,” he said.
Gary
Horvath, managing director of CU’s Business Research Division, knows well how
revisions to statistics often tell a different story. In down economies, the
numbers usually come back down, too, he said. The latest numbers won’t be
revised until March.
Experts
say the same thing about U.S. unemployment number. People whose benefits have
run out just quit coming to workforce centers. Hours and pay of many full-time
employees were cut back, and self-employed workers don’t get counted at all as
they lose clients but cannot file for unemployment.
One
Fed official estimated in August that the “real” unemployment rate was near 16
percent. The government actually calculates a broader number, called the U-6, a
number of “labor underutilization.” In September, it was at 17 percent, the
highest it has been since the data started in 1994.
Local
job seekers I know remain wary of a real pickup in new local jobs. That’s
because they know from experience how many people they must compete against
when a job is advertised.
That
bump of new jobs in county Workforce computers is offset terribly by some 8,600
people applying for unemployment benefits in the same July to September period.
That’s
a significant jump from 5,700 job seekers in the same time in 2008. When you
look at the county’s 5.5 percent unemployment stat from the Colorado Department
of Labor & Employment (www.coworkforce.com), 9,554 are listed as unemployed
out of the county’s civilian labor force of 172,279.
Miller
says new jobs are showing up in office and administrative support, which were
quite sparse this year. Somehow, jobs are getting posted in building and
construction, industries slammed by the recession’s credit crisis. There are
also new jobs in manufacturing production and transportation.
A
noticeable difference in this recession from Colorado’s downturn in 2002-03 is
the broad range of professionals -- rather than mostly tech workers -- applying
for benefits, Miller said. As residential and commercial building slid to a
halt, architects and engineers lost their jobs. Job openings decreased across
the board. “Retail, hospitality – you name it,” Miller added, were all hit
hard.
Horvath
confirms that this recession hurt not only blue-collar construction workers,
but the sector’s white-collar jobs as well. He estimates some 25,000 to 30,000
building-related professionals lost jobs, accounting for a huge slice of
Colorado’s unemployment.
County
job officials have launched two new programs for job seekers and employers,
which you can find on the Hire Colorado link at www.wfbc.org.
*
The Hire On-the-Job Training Program will pay businesses 50 percent of wages
for one to five months (up to $5,000) to train a new employee in a job.
*
New HIRE internships will provide paid employees to nonprofits and government
agencies for short-term projects.
University
of Colorado business researchers have just a few weeks before their annual
Economic Outlook Forum on Monday, Dec. 7 in Denver. The 2009 numbers won’t be
pretty. Colorado lost 115,600 jobs through September.
Horvath
said it’s nearly impossible to forecast when in 2010 that companies could start
hiring again. “Short answer,” he said, “at some point next year things will be
on an uptick.” CU researchers right now, he said, are encouraged by higher U.S.
GDP estimates. But, after all, they are only numbers.
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