It’s
an interesting dilemma for Colorado.
Population
growth, natural as well as an in-migration from other states, vs. continuing
job losses and a state unemployment number that isn’t improving much.
It
happened in 2009, it’s forecast for 2010. But is it a problem? I couldn’t help
but wonder during a recent economic forecast by CU economist Richard Wobbekind
in Boulder.
More
people, disillusioned with worsening economies and few good jobs in their own
states, continue to pack their bags and head to the hills – our hills, namely
the Rocky Mountains.
Colorado’s
population increased by about 72,000 in 2009. Of that, about 32,000 were people
moving in, according to CU business researchers.
This
isn’t something new, of course, for bountiful Colorado. We’ve had substantial
net migration since the end of World War II, about 880,000 people between 1950
and 1990. We had another net gain of 359,000 in domestic migration and 58,000
in international migration from 1990 to 1998.
This year, CU
economists think the state will continue to attract people – more than 88,000,
taking our total population to about 5.17 million. Colorado topped the 5
million mark in population in 2008 and continued to grow right through the
recession.
Colorado’s
unemployment rate rose slightly in December to 7.5 percent; in December 2008 it
stood at 5.8 percent. Our numbers are better than many states, but experts all
say the real unemployment figure is certainly higher, easily double digit since
many people who’ve now lost their job benefits are simply dropping off unemployment
roles.
So I wondered about
this. More people continuing to move in – that’s a good thing perhaps for home
sales and rentals. But if they can’t find jobs, what are they going to do?
I asked this directly
to economist Wobbekind, who had made the point in his speech that a drop-off in
jobs combined with more people coming in would add another “pressure” point to
the state’s wobbly economy.
For 2010, the CU
business team forecast that the state would actually end the year with another
net loss of jobs, after losing some 100,000 jobs in 2009. Unemployment, they
predict, may climb to 8.1 percent.
A few other key
factors don’t bode well either for Colorado’s immediate future.
·
The recession
has cut into the state’s overall “intellectual power.”
·
Social
services are being squeezed throughout state and local governments.
·
Diminishing
tax revenues are casting a big shadow over education funding, with cuts
imminent.
So how might these conflicting numbers of higher in-migration of people
without enough jobs for newcomers, let alone the people who live here, somehow
be justified in the many ingredients that get stirred into the economic stew
every day?
Wobbekind offered me a few possibilities, stressing that these are “possibilities”
because they aren’t typically measured in key economic indicators. The new
census might be more revealing as it digs into just who is living here.
·
One, there’s
strong evidence that the number of “self-employed” workers is increasing. As
people have lost jobs or decided to break out of the corporate world and strike
out on their own, many are working from home, contracting for their services
and just not showing up in measurable ranks of employment.
·
Two, several
people in a household are living off the income of a single worker. In other
words, one person may have been hired, and the entire family of 4 or 5 moved
here, adding to the net migration number.
·
Three, it’s
also possible someone in a new Colorado household continues to hold down a job
in another state, but is able to commute or even work virtually on that job. I
personally know of one woman, laid off from her job in Colorado, who recently
accepted a position out of state but as a Web editor on the Internet, she’s
able to continue to live here.
No doubt, as
technology continues to drastically alter the landscape of what jobs are
looking like in the new decade, economists and researchers are going to have to
figure out how to adjust their numbers accordingly.
Or, if the state’s
job picture does not improve, as happened in past Colorado downturns – the “in”
migration may suddenly turn to “out” migration.
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